As autumn turns to winter, grocery retailers find themselves at the center of the holiday season’s festivities. Thanksgiving and Christmas bring a surge in sales and a mix of joy and celebration. Shoppers stock up on seasonal items, prompting retailers to navigate a complex landscape of products, inventory, and promotional strategies.
Seasonal Sales
During Thanksgiving and Christmas, grocery stores see a significant boost in sales. Circana’s 2023 Total U.S. Multi outlet data shows category sales can rise 15-35% during these periods compared to average weeks. This increase is driven by consumers preparing meals, hosting gatherings, and buying gifts and seasonal treats.
Year-to-date (through June 16, 2024) Total U.S. MULO store sales increased 1.7%. If this trend continues, sales for Thanksgiving and Christmas 2024 will surpass those of 2023, though at a slower growth rate. Retailers must execute their strategies flawlessly to capture all potential sales opportunities.
Seasonal Products
One of the highlights of the holiday season is the array of seasonal products and specialty offerings. Grocery retailers stock up on an assortment of holiday favorites during Thanksgiving and Christmas. Circana identified products that tend to over-index in sales during the holiday season including, candy, baking items, hot cocoa, cream cheese, butter, sparkling wine, batteries, smoked ham, and beef ribeye, among others.
Additionally, limited-edition items and unique holiday flavors often make their debut during this time of year, such as, pumpkin pie, peppermint, eggnog, and gingerbread. These limited-edition items and holiday flavors drive sales by enticing customers to try something new or purchase a favorite flavor now, before they are gone.
Inventory Management
Effective inventory management is crucial for capitalizing on holiday sales. Retailers must anticipate increased demand and ensure they have enough stock of popular items. Close collaboration with inventory management partners and a keen understanding of trends and daily sales are essential. Monitoring inventory closely and acting quickly when stock runs low can prevent missed sales and customer disappointment.
Seasonal Promotions
Promotions and discounts are vital for boosting holiday sales. They not only attract customers but also encourage larger purchases and increase store sales. Circana reports that in 2023, over 35% of sales in Total U.S. MULO during the Thanksgiving and Christmas periods occurred on promotion—the highest rate of the year. Retailers need to create compelling promotions that drive sales while avoiding margin erosion.
Maximize Sales
The Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays present significant sales opportunities and challenges for grocery retailers. By managing inventory effectively, leveraging promotions, and aligning with seasonal product trends and regional preferences, retailers can maximize their sales performance and finish the year strong.
Circana is the leading advisor on the complexity of consumer behavior. With unparalleled technology, our Liquid Data platform makes it easy to work with cross-industry data and advanced analytics. Seeing all the angles makes it easier to find new opportunities and spark growth. Circana is proud to partner with AWG.
