Back-to-School
As summer begins to ramp up, the last thing anyone wants to think about is these long, sunny days and cool breezy nights coming to an end, but they will. On the heels of this bittersweet finale, students return to the classroom. Which means, consumers will have stocked up on their back-to-school provisions. Retailers must be prepared and have the correct assortment and supply to fulfill these needs.
Seasonal Sales
During the peak of back-to-school (BTS) shopping, grocery stores experience a substantial increase in sales. According to Circana 2024 Food channel data, category sales of stationery and school supplies can experience +100% dollar sales growth during this key period compared to average selling weeks throughout the year.
It is important for Grocers to pay attention to market trends in back-to-school categories. Sales are softening in the Food Channel, so prior demand may not be as strong as in years past. Year-to-date through June 1, 2025, category sales are down -2.5% compared to the same timeframe in 2024. This follows a decline of –4.5%, comparing 2024 to 2023.
At AWG, dollar sales in the category are down -3.7% YTD, slightly more than the Food channel, resulting in a -0.07 share point decline. Recouping lost share is valued at a $25k opportunity.
Inventory Management
The key to capitalizing on BTS sales is effective inventory management. Utilizing the AWG Partner Gateway, powered by Circana, can help monitor inventory and allow for quick action. Specifically, the “Void” report, located in the “Inventory” workflow, can identify products with zero billed quantities down to the store level. If an item has substantial movement, but is not distributed to particular divisions, equity groups or stores, AWG internal and external colleagues can partner to determine any missed opportunities.
Assortment Management
With the implementation of Circana’s Market Measurement data model this year, Division partners can work with members to view sales performance not only through AWG’s lens but also get insights into the market in total. In the example above, there may be reasons why specific items are not distributed to certain divisions. Perhaps that item is gaining momentum in one region but declining in another.
The “Top Selling Market Items – Food” report in the “Line Review” workflow can identify opportunities within divisions, as well as AWG in total, where an item is growing in the market, but AWG is not receiving its fair share. The opportunity is also quantified, and the potential for incremental gains can be understood.
Maximize Sales
BTS shopping performance is often thought of as a key indicator for consumer spending for the upcoming holiday season. Winning this period is favorable for driving positive momentum into Thanksgiving and Christmas. By leveraging the AWG Gateway and partnering both internally and externally to identify distribution and assortment opportunities, retailers can maximize sales performance and head into the holidays confidently.
Circana is the leading advisor on the complexity of consumer behavior. With unparalleled technology, our Liquid Data platform makes it easy to work with cross-industry data and advanced analytics. Seeing all the angles makes it easier to find new opportunities and spark growth. Circana is proud to partner with AWG.
